(* Content-type: application/vnd.wolfram.cdf.text *) (*** Wolfram CDF File ***) (* http://www.wolfram.com/cdf *) (* CreatedBy='Mathematica 11.0' *) (*************************************************************************) (* *) (* The Mathematica License under which this file was created prohibits *) (* restricting third parties in receipt of this file from republishing *) (* or redistributing it by any means, including but not limited to *) (* rights management or terms of use, without the express consent of *) (* Wolfram Research, Inc. For additional information concerning CDF *) (* licensing and redistribution see: *) (* *) (* www.wolfram.com/cdf/adopting-cdf/licensing-options.html *) (* *) (*************************************************************************) (*CacheID: 234*) (* Internal cache information: NotebookFileLineBreakTest NotebookFileLineBreakTest NotebookDataPosition[ 1064, 20] NotebookDataLength[ 27166, 565] NotebookOptionsPosition[ 27420, 551] NotebookOutlinePosition[ 28091, 578] CellTagsIndexPosition[ 28048, 575] WindowFrame->Normal*) (* Beginning of Notebook Content *) Notebook[{ Cell[BoxData[ TabViewBox[{{1,"\<\"Fixed/Random/Approach\"\>"-> TagBox[ StyleBox[ DynamicModuleBox[{$CellContext`regime$$ = 4, $CellContext`variable$$ = $CellContext`random, Typeset`show$$ = True, Typeset`bookmarkList$$ = {}, Typeset`bookmarkMode$$ = "Menu", Typeset`animator$$, Typeset`animvar$$ = 1, Typeset`name$$ = "\"untitled\"", Typeset`specs$$ = {{{ Hold[$CellContext`variable$$], $CellContext`fixed, "Choose"}, {$CellContext`fixed -> "Fixed", $CellContext`random -> "Random"}}, {{ Hold[$CellContext`regime$$], 1, " or "}, { 1 -> "Approach", 2 -> "Engaged", 3 -> "Aggressive", 4 -> "Passive"}}, { Hold[ Row[{ Manipulate`Place[1], Manipulate`Place[2]}]], Manipulate`Dump`ThisIsNotAControl}}, Typeset`size$$ = {553., {370., 375.}}, Typeset`update$$ = 0, Typeset`initDone$$, Typeset`skipInitDone$$ = False, $CellContext`variable$7433$$ = False, $CellContext`regime$7434$$ = False}, DynamicBox[Manipulate`ManipulateBoxes[ 2, StandardForm, "Variables" :> {$CellContext`regime$$ = 1, $CellContext`variable$$ = $CellContext`fixed}, "ControllerVariables" :> { Hold[$CellContext`variable$$, $CellContext`variable$7433$$, False], Hold[$CellContext`regime$$, $CellContext`regime$7434$$, False]}, "OtherVariables" :> { Typeset`show$$, Typeset`bookmarkList$$, Typeset`bookmarkMode$$, Typeset`animator$$, Typeset`animvar$$, Typeset`name$$, Typeset`specs$$, Typeset`size$$, Typeset`update$$, Typeset`initDone$$, Typeset`skipInitDone$$}, "Body" :> Dynamic[ If[$CellContext`regime$$ != 1, $CellContext`fct1[ Table[$CellContext`i, {$CellContext`i, 100, 50, -10}], (Riffle[ConstantArray[1, 5] - #, #]& )[ Part[$CellContext`custprobs, $CellContext`regime$$]]], Dynamic[ If[$CellContext`variable$$ === $CellContext`fixed, Column[{ Invisible[ Button["Re-randomize", ImageSize -> Large]], $CellContext`fct1[ Table[$CellContext`i, {$CellContext`i, 100, 50, -10}], {0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5}]}], Column[{ Button[ "Re-randomize", $CellContext`payoff = RandomInteger[{10, 100}, 6]; $CellContext`probs = (Riffle[ ConstantArray[1, 5] - #, #]& )[ N[RandomInteger[{0, 9}, 5]/10]], ImageSize -> Large], $CellContext`fct1[$CellContext`payoff, \ $CellContext`probs]}]]]]], "Specifications" :> {{{$CellContext`variable$$, $CellContext`fixed, "Choose"}, {$CellContext`fixed -> "Fixed", $CellContext`random -> "Random"}, ControlPlacement -> 1}, {{$CellContext`regime$$, 1, " or "}, { 1 -> "Approach", 2 -> "Engaged", 3 -> "Aggressive", 4 -> "Passive"}, ControlType -> PopupMenu, FieldSize -> Small, ControlPlacement -> 2}, Row[{ Manipulate`Place[1], Manipulate`Place[2]}]}, "Options" :> { TrackedSymbols :> {$CellContext`fixed, $CellContext`random}}, "DefaultOptions" :> {}], ImageSizeCache->{594., {410., 415.}}, SingleEvaluation->True], Deinitialization:>None, DynamicModuleValues:>{}, Initialization:>({{$CellContext`fct1[ Condition[ Pattern[$CellContext`payoff, Blank[List]], Length[$CellContext`payoff] == 6], Condition[ Pattern[$CellContext`probs, Blank[List]], Length[$CellContext`probs] == 10]] := Module[{$CellContext`vertices, $CellContext`edges, \ $CellContext`outcomes, $CellContext`labels, $CellContext`eLabels, \ $CellContext`vlabels, $CellContext`vsh}, $CellContext`vsh[{ Pattern[$CellContext`xc, Blank[]], Pattern[$CellContext`yc, Blank[]]}, Pattern[$CellContext`name, Blank[]], { Pattern[$CellContext`w, Blank[]], Pattern[$CellContext`h, Blank[]]}] := { EdgeForm[Black], LightYellow, Disk[{$CellContext`xc, $CellContext`yc}, {0.25, 0.25}], Inset[ Style[ Text[ Part[$CellContext`labels, $CellContext`name]], FontSize -> 10, Black], {$CellContext`xc, $CellContext`yc}]}; \ $CellContext`vertices = Range[11]; $CellContext`edges = { DirectedEdge[1, 2], DirectedEdge[1, 3], DirectedEdge[2, 4], DirectedEdge[2, 5], DirectedEdge[3, 6], DirectedEdge[3, 9], DirectedEdge[6, 7], DirectedEdge[6, 8], DirectedEdge[9, 10], DirectedEdge[9, 11]}; $CellContext`outcomes = { "Today", "Do Nothing", "Take Action", "Client\nDies", "Partner\nDies", "Litigation", "Forced\nSale", "Negotiated\nBuyout", "Negotiation", "Negotiated\nBuyout", "\nSale or\nExchange\n"}; $CellContext`labels = Map[Style[#, { FontSize -> 10, FontFamily -> "Times", Italic}]& , $CellContext`outcomes]; $CellContext`eLabels = \ $CellContext`probs; $CellContext`eLabels = MapThread[# -> #2& , {$CellContext`edges, $CellContext`eLabels}]; \ $CellContext`vlabels = MapThread[# -> #2& , { Range[11], $CellContext`labels}]; Show[ Graph[$CellContext`vertices, $CellContext`edges, EdgeLabels -> $CellContext`eLabels, GraphLayout -> {"LayeredEmbedding", "Orientation" -> Left}, VertexShapeFunction -> $CellContext`vsh, ImageSize -> 442], Epilog -> { Style[ Text[ StringJoin["Expected Result =", ToString[ NumberForm[(( Part[$CellContext`payoff, 1] Part[$CellContext`probs, 10] + Part[$CellContext`payoff, 2] Part[$CellContext`probs, 9]) Part[$CellContext`probs, 6] + Part[$CellContext`probs, 5] ( Part[$CellContext`probs, 8] Part[$CellContext`payoff, 3] + Part[$CellContext`probs, 7] Part[$CellContext`payoff, 4])) Part[$CellContext`probs, 2] + Part[$CellContext`probs, 1] ( Part[$CellContext`payoff, 5] Part[$CellContext`probs, 4] + Part[$CellContext`payoff, 6] Part[$CellContext`probs, 3]), {4, 2}]]], {0, 3.45}], Red], Text[ Part[$CellContext`payoff, 1], {2.7, 3.45}], Text[ Part[$CellContext`payoff, 2], {2.7, 2.7}], Text[ Part[$CellContext`payoff, 3], {2.7, 1.9}], Text[ Part[$CellContext`payoff, 4], {2.7, 1.15}], Text[ Part[$CellContext`payoff, 5], {2.7, 0.75}], Text["\nClient Owns\nw/Partner\nHeirs", {2., 0.75}], Text[ Part[$CellContext`payoff, 6], {2.7, 0.02}], Text["Client\n Heirs Own\nwith Partner", {2, 0.02}]}, PlotRangePadding -> 0.25, BaseStyle -> { FontSize -> 10, FontFamily -> "Times", Italic}]], $CellContext`payoff = {21, 72, 53, 74, 73, 23}, $CellContext`probs = {0.6, 0.4, 0.09999999999999998, 0.9, 0.9, 0.1, 0.7, 0.3, 0.6, 0.4}, $CellContext`custprobs = {{0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5}, {0.9, 0.8, 0.7, 0.6, 0.2}, {0.9, 0.5, 0.2, 0.5, 0.5}, {0.1, 0.5, 0.8, 0.5, 0.5}}}; ($CellContext`fct1[ Condition[ Pattern[$CellContext`payoff, Blank[List]], Length[$CellContext`payoff] == 6], Condition[ Pattern[$CellContext`probs, Blank[List]], Length[$CellContext`probs] == 10]] := Module[{$CellContext`vertices, $CellContext`edges, \ $CellContext`outcomes, $CellContext`labels, $CellContext`eLabels, \ $CellContext`vlabels, $CellContext`vsh}, $CellContext`vsh[{ Pattern[$CellContext`xc, Blank[]], Pattern[$CellContext`yc, Blank[]]}, Pattern[$CellContext`name, Blank[]], { Pattern[$CellContext`w, Blank[]], Pattern[$CellContext`h, Blank[]]}] := { EdgeForm[Black], LightYellow, Disk[{$CellContext`xc, $CellContext`yc}, {0.25, 0.25}], Inset[ Style[ Text[ Part[$CellContext`labels, $CellContext`name]], FontSize -> 10, Black], {$CellContext`xc, $CellContext`yc}]}; \ $CellContext`vertices = Range[11]; $CellContext`edges = { DirectedEdge[1, 2], DirectedEdge[1, 3], DirectedEdge[2, 4], DirectedEdge[2, 5], DirectedEdge[3, 6], DirectedEdge[3, 9], DirectedEdge[6, 7], DirectedEdge[6, 8], DirectedEdge[9, 10], DirectedEdge[9, 11]}; $CellContext`outcomes = { "Today", "Do Nothing", "Take Action", "Client\nDies", "Partner\nDies", "Litigation", "Forced\nSale", "Negotiated\nBuyout", "Negotiation", "Negotiated\nBuyout", "\nSale or\nExchange\n"}; $CellContext`labels = Map[Style[#, { FontSize -> 10, FontFamily -> "Times", Italic}]& , $CellContext`outcomes]; $CellContext`eLabels = \ $CellContext`probs; $CellContext`eLabels = MapThread[# -> #2& , {$CellContext`edges, $CellContext`eLabels}]; \ $CellContext`vlabels = MapThread[# -> #2& , { Range[11], $CellContext`labels}]; Show[ Graph[$CellContext`vertices, $CellContext`edges, EdgeLabels -> $CellContext`eLabels, GraphLayout -> {"LayeredEmbedding", "Orientation" -> Left}, VertexShapeFunction -> $CellContext`vsh, ImageSize -> 442], Epilog -> { Style[ Text[ StringJoin["Expected Result =", ToString[ NumberForm[(( Part[$CellContext`payoff, 1] Part[$CellContext`probs, 10] + Part[$CellContext`payoff, 2] Part[$CellContext`probs, 9]) Part[$CellContext`probs, 6] + Part[$CellContext`probs, 5] ( Part[$CellContext`probs, 8] Part[$CellContext`payoff, 3] + Part[$CellContext`probs, 7] Part[$CellContext`payoff, 4])) Part[$CellContext`probs, 2] + Part[$CellContext`probs, 1] ( Part[$CellContext`payoff, 5] Part[$CellContext`probs, 4] + Part[$CellContext`payoff, 6] Part[$CellContext`probs, 3]), {4, 2}]]], {0, 3.45}], Red], Text[ Part[$CellContext`payoff, 1], {2.7, 3.45}], Text[ Part[$CellContext`payoff, 2], {2.7, 2.7}], Text[ Part[$CellContext`payoff, 3], {2.7, 1.9}], Text[ Part[$CellContext`payoff, 4], {2.7, 1.15}], Text[ Part[$CellContext`payoff, 5], {2.7, 0.75}], Text["\nClient Owns\nw/Partner\nHeirs", {2., 0.75}], Text[ Part[$CellContext`payoff, 6], {2.7, 0.02}], Text["Client\n Heirs Own\nwith Partner", {2, 0.02}]}, PlotRangePadding -> 0.25, BaseStyle -> { FontSize -> 10, FontFamily -> "Times", Italic}]]; $CellContext`payoff = RandomInteger[{10, 100}, 6]; $CellContext`probs = (Riffle[ ConstantArray[1, 5] - #, #]& )[ N[RandomInteger[{0, 9}, 5]/10]]; $CellContext`custprobs = {{0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5}, {0.9, 0.8, 0.7, 0.6, 0.2}, {0.9, 0.5, 0.2, 0.5, 0.5}, {0.1, 0.5, 0.8, 0.5, 0.5}}; Null)}; Typeset`initDone$$ = True), SynchronousInitialization->True, UndoTrackedVariables:>{Typeset`show$$, Typeset`bookmarkMode$$}, UnsavedVariables:>{Typeset`initDone$$}, UntrackedVariables:>{Typeset`size$$}], "Manipulate", Deployed->True, StripOnInput->False], Manipulate`InterpretManipulate[1]]}, {2,"\<\"Custom\"\>"-> TagBox[ StyleBox[ DynamicModuleBox[{$CellContext`pr1$$ = 0.9, $CellContext`pr2$$ = 0.8, $CellContext`pr3$$ = 0.7, $CellContext`pr4$$ = 0.6, $CellContext`pr5$$ = 0.2, $CellContext`v1$$ = 100, $CellContext`v2$$ = 90, $CellContext`v3$$ = 80, $CellContext`v4$$ = 70, $CellContext`v5$$ = 60, $CellContext`v6$$ = 50, Typeset`show$$ = True, Typeset`bookmarkList$$ = {}, Typeset`bookmarkMode$$ = "Menu", Typeset`animator$$, Typeset`animvar$$ = 1, Typeset`name$$ = "\"untitled\"", Typeset`specs$$ = {{{ Hold[$CellContext`v1$$], 100, "Sale or Exchange"}, 0, 100, 10}, {{ Hold[$CellContext`v2$$], 90, "Negotiated Buyout"}, 0, 100, 10}, {{ Hold[$CellContext`v3$$], 80, "Negotiated Buyout"}, 0, 100, 10}, {{ Hold[$CellContext`v4$$], 70, "Forced Sale"}, 0, 100, 10}, {{ Hold[$CellContext`v5$$], 60, "Partner Dies"}, 0, 100, 10}, {{ Hold[$CellContext`v6$$], 50, "Client Dies"}, 0, 100, 10}, {{ Hold[$CellContext`pr1$$], 0.9, "Today - Take Action"}, 0, 1, 0.05}, {{ Hold[$CellContext`pr2$$], 0.8, "Do nothing - Partner Dies"}, 0, 1, 0.05}, {{ Hold[$CellContext`pr3$$], 0.7, "Take Action - Negotiation"}, 0, 1, 0.05}, {{ Hold[$CellContext`pr4$$], 0.6, "Litigation - Negotiated Buyout"}, 0, 1, 0.05}, {{ Hold[$CellContext`pr5$$], 0.2, "Negotiation - Sale or Exchange"}, 0, 1, 0.05}, { Hold[ Grid[{{ Style["Values", Bold], Style["Probabilities", Bold]}, { Manipulate`Place[1], Manipulate`Place[7]}, { Manipulate`Place[2], Manipulate`Place[8]}, { Manipulate`Place[3], Manipulate`Place[9]}, { Manipulate`Place[4], Manipulate`Place[10]}, { Manipulate`Place[5], Manipulate`Place[11]}, { Manipulate`Place[6], ""}}, Alignment -> Left]], Manipulate`Dump`ThisIsNotAControl}}, Typeset`size$$ = {77., {2., 7.}}, Typeset`update$$ = 0, Typeset`initDone$$, Typeset`skipInitDone$$ = False, $CellContext`v1$7453$$ = 0, $CellContext`v2$7454$$ = 0, $CellContext`v3$7455$$ = 0, $CellContext`v4$7456$$ = 0, $CellContext`v5$7457$$ = 0, $CellContext`v6$7458$$ = 0, $CellContext`pr1$7459$$ = 0, $CellContext`pr2$7460$$ = 0, $CellContext`pr3$7461$$ = 0, $CellContext`pr4$7462$$ = 0}, DynamicBox[Manipulate`ManipulateBoxes[ 2, StandardForm, "Variables" :> {$CellContext`pr1$$ = 0.9, $CellContext`pr2$$ = 0.8, $CellContext`pr3$$ = 0.7, $CellContext`pr4$$ = 0.6, $CellContext`pr5$$ = 0.2, $CellContext`v1$$ = 100, $CellContext`v2$$ = 90, $CellContext`v3$$ = 80, $CellContext`v4$$ = 70, $CellContext`v5$$ = 60, $CellContext`v6$$ = 50}, "ControllerVariables" :> { Hold[$CellContext`v1$$, $CellContext`v1$7453$$, 0], Hold[$CellContext`v2$$, $CellContext`v2$7454$$, 0], Hold[$CellContext`v3$$, $CellContext`v3$7455$$, 0], Hold[$CellContext`v4$$, $CellContext`v4$7456$$, 0], Hold[$CellContext`v5$$, $CellContext`v5$7457$$, 0], Hold[$CellContext`v6$$, $CellContext`v6$7458$$, 0], Hold[$CellContext`pr1$$, $CellContext`pr1$7459$$, 0], Hold[$CellContext`pr2$$, $CellContext`pr2$7460$$, 0], Hold[$CellContext`pr3$$, $CellContext`pr3$7461$$, 0], Hold[$CellContext`pr4$$, $CellContext`pr4$7462$$, 0]}, "OtherVariables" :> { Typeset`show$$, Typeset`bookmarkList$$, Typeset`bookmarkMode$$, Typeset`animator$$, Typeset`animvar$$, Typeset`name$$, Typeset`specs$$, Typeset`size$$, Typeset`update$$, Typeset`initDone$$, Typeset`skipInitDone$$}, "Body" :> ($CellContext`pr = (Riffle[ ConstantArray[ 1, 5] - #, #]& )[{$CellContext`pr1$$, $CellContext`pr2$$, \ $CellContext`pr3$$, $CellContext`pr4$$, $CellContext`pr5$$}]; \ $CellContext`value = {$CellContext`v1$$, $CellContext`v2$$, \ $CellContext`v3$$, $CellContext`v4$$, $CellContext`v5$$, $CellContext`v6$$}; Dynamic[ $CellContext`fct2[$CellContext`value, $CellContext`pr]]), "Specifications" :> {{{$CellContext`v1$$, 100, "Sale or Exchange"}, 0, 100, 10, Appearance -> "Labeled", ControlPlacement -> 1}, {{$CellContext`v2$$, 90, "Negotiated Buyout"}, 0, 100, 10, Appearance -> "Labeled", ControlPlacement -> 2}, {{$CellContext`v3$$, 80, "Negotiated Buyout"}, 0, 100, 10, Appearance -> "Labeled", ControlPlacement -> 3}, {{$CellContext`v4$$, 70, "Forced Sale"}, 0, 100, 10, Appearance -> "Labeled", ControlPlacement -> 4}, {{$CellContext`v5$$, 60, "Partner Dies"}, 0, 100, 10, Appearance -> "Labeled", ControlPlacement -> 5}, {{$CellContext`v6$$, 50, "Client Dies"}, 0, 100, 10, Appearance -> "Labeled", ControlPlacement -> 6}, {{$CellContext`pr1$$, 0.9, "Today - Take Action"}, 0, 1, 0.05, Appearance -> "Labeled", ControlPlacement -> 7}, {{$CellContext`pr2$$, 0.8, "Do nothing - Partner Dies"}, 0, 1, 0.05, Appearance -> "Labeled", ControlPlacement -> 8}, {{$CellContext`pr3$$, 0.7, "Take Action - Negotiation"}, 0, 1, 0.05, Appearance -> "Labeled", ControlPlacement -> 9}, {{$CellContext`pr4$$, 0.6, "Litigation - Negotiated Buyout"}, 0, 1, 0.05, Appearance -> "Labeled", ControlPlacement -> 10}, {{$CellContext`pr5$$, 0.2, "Negotiation - Sale or Exchange"}, 0, 1, 0.05, Appearance -> "Labeled", ControlPlacement -> 11}, Grid[{{ Style["Values", Bold], Style["Probabilities", Bold]}, { Manipulate`Place[1], Manipulate`Place[7]}, { Manipulate`Place[2], Manipulate`Place[8]}, { Manipulate`Place[3], Manipulate`Place[9]}, { Manipulate`Place[4], Manipulate`Place[10]}, { Manipulate`Place[5], Manipulate`Place[11]}, { Manipulate`Place[6], ""}}, Alignment -> Left]}, "Options" :> { TrackedSymbols :> {$CellContext`v1$$, $CellContext`v2$$, \ $CellContext`v3$$, $CellContext`v4$$, $CellContext`v5$$, $CellContext`v6$$, \ $CellContext`pr1$$, $CellContext`pr2$$, $CellContext`pr3$$, \ $CellContext`pr4$$, $CellContext`pr5$$}}, "DefaultOptions" :> {}], ImageSizeCache->{608., {103., 108.}}, SingleEvaluation->True], Deinitialization:>None, DynamicModuleValues:>{}, Initialization:>(($CellContext`fct2[ Condition[ Pattern[$CellContext`value$, Blank[List]], Length[$CellContext`value$] == 6], Condition[ Pattern[$CellContext`pr$, Blank[List]], Length[$CellContext`pr$] == 10]] := Module[{$CellContext`vertices$, $CellContext`edges$, \ $CellContext`outcomes$, $CellContext`labels$, $CellContext`eLabels$, \ $CellContext`vlabels$, $CellContext`vsh$}, $CellContext`vsh$[{ Pattern[$CellContext`xc$, Blank[]], Pattern[$CellContext`yc$, Blank[]]}, Pattern[$CellContext`name$, Blank[]], { Pattern[$CellContext`w$, Blank[]], Pattern[$CellContext`h$, Blank[]]}] := { EdgeForm[Black], LightYellow, Disk[{$CellContext`xc$, $CellContext`yc$}, {0.25, 0.25}], Inset[ Style[ Text[ Part[$CellContext`labels$, $CellContext`name$]], FontSize -> 10, Black], {$CellContext`xc$, $CellContext`yc$}]}; \ $CellContext`vertices$ = Range[11]; $CellContext`edges$ = { DirectedEdge[1, 2], DirectedEdge[1, 3], DirectedEdge[2, 4], DirectedEdge[2, 5], DirectedEdge[3, 6], DirectedEdge[3, 9], DirectedEdge[6, 7], DirectedEdge[6, 8], DirectedEdge[9, 10], DirectedEdge[9, 11]}; $CellContext`outcomes$ = { "Today", "Do Nothing", "Take Action", "Client\nDies", " Partner\nDies", "Litigation", "Forced\nSale", "Negotiated\nBuyout", "Negotiation", "Negotiated\nBuyout", "\nSale or\n Exchange\n"}; $CellContext`labels$ = Map[Style[#, { FontSize -> 10, FontFamily -> "Times", Italic}]& , $CellContext`outcomes$]; $CellContext`eLabels$ = \ $CellContext`pr$; $CellContext`eLabels$ = MapThread[# -> #2& , {$CellContext`edges$, $CellContext`eLabels$}]; \ $CellContext`vlabels$ = MapThread[# -> #2& , { Range[11], $CellContext`labels$}]; Show[ Graph[$CellContext`vertices$, $CellContext`edges$, EdgeLabels -> $CellContext`eLabels$, GraphLayout -> {"LayeredEmbedding", "Orientation" -> Left}, VertexShapeFunction -> $CellContext`vsh$, ImageSize -> 432], Epilog -> { Style[ Text[ StringJoin["Expected Result =", ToString[ NumberForm[(($CellContext`v1$$ $CellContext`pr5$$ + \ $CellContext`v2$$ (1 - $CellContext`pr5$$)) $CellContext`pr3$$ + ( 1 - $CellContext`pr3$$) ($CellContext`pr4$$ \ $CellContext`v3$$ + ( 1 - $CellContext`pr4$$) $CellContext`v4$$)) \ $CellContext`pr1$$ + ( 1 - $CellContext`pr1$$) ($CellContext`v5$$ \ $CellContext`pr2$$ + $CellContext`v6$$ (1 - $CellContext`pr2$$)), {4, 2}]]], { 0, 3.45}], Red], Text[$CellContext`v1$$, {2.7, 3.45}], Text[$CellContext`v2$$, {2.7, 2.7}], Text[$CellContext`v3$$, {2.7, 1.9}], Text[$CellContext`v4$$, {2.7, 1.15}], Text[$CellContext`v5$$, {2.7, 0.75}], Text["\nClient Owns\nw/Partner\nHeirs", {2., 0.75}], Text[$CellContext`v6$$, {2.7, 0.02}], Text["Client\n Heirs Own\nwith Partner", {2, 0.02}]}, PlotRangePadding -> 0.25, BaseStyle -> {FontSize -> 10, FontFamily -> "Times", Italic}]]; Null); Typeset`initDone$$ = True), SynchronousInitialization->True, UndoTrackedVariables:>{Typeset`show$$, Typeset`bookmarkMode$$}, UnsavedVariables:>{Typeset`initDone$$}, UntrackedVariables:>{Typeset`size$$}], "Manipulate", Deployed->True, StripOnInput->False], Manipulate`InterpretManipulate[1]]}}, 2]], "Output", Editable->False], Cell["\<\ Assuming the arbitrator is skilled in guiding the parties, only two rules \ must be followed. They are: 1.\tEach payoff value must be between 0 and 100 in increments of 10 and must \ descend from top to bottom along the right hand side; 2.\tProbabilities must be between 0 and 1 in increments of 0.05 and each pair \ extending out from each node must add to 1;\ \>", "Text"], Cell[TextData[{ "The alert reader will at once recognize that it is a near certainty that \ the parties will not reach the same number for Expected result if, naturally, \ one assumes one\[CloseCurlyQuote]s own death is less preferred than another\ \[CloseCurlyQuote]s. The purpose is not to have the parties reach the same \ Expected result so much as it is to have them evaluate increments of the \ decision making process in the context of a global outcome. This sort of \ reductionism has a long and distinguished history in human thought and \ analysis. \n\nOne may ask, with respect to the Expected result: For ", StyleBox["whom", FontSlant->"Italic", FontVariations->{"Underline"->True}], " is this result expected? This is a fair question. I leave it to the \ behavioral scientists to sort out when partnerships with joint and common \ goals and objectives devolve into sets of individual differing goals and \ objectives. It is at this flashpoint that the parties begin to count their \ separate winnings and come into conflict. Thus, the decision tree is expected \ to be applied individually to each decision maker. If used properly as a way \ to educate the parties, deflect them from emotional uproar and place them on \ a path to objective values, the exercise can bear fruit.\n\nThe foregoing \ hints at a more global answer to the question posed at the outset. The reason \ machines learn is that they quantify things, follow rules and seek an optimal \ solution. Certainly the programmer influences, even sets, the goal the \ computer works toward. Whether humans are willing or even able to set aside \ emotions and become coldly analytical when their health, fortunes and family \ is involved remains an open question." }], "Text"] }, WindowToolbars->"EditBar", WindowSize->{1280, 637}, Visible->True, ScrollingOptions->{"VerticalScrollRange"->Fit}, PrintingCopies->1, PrintingPageRange->{32000, 32000}, PrintingOptions->{"Magnification"->1., "PaperOrientation"->"Portrait", "PaperSize"->{612, 792}}, ShowCellBracket->Automatic, CellContext->Notebook, ShowCellLabel->False, TrackCellChangeTimes->False, Magnification:>0.75 Inherited, FrontEndVersion->"11.0 for Microsoft Windows (64-bit) (September 21, 2016)", StyleDefinitions->"Default.nb" ] (* End of Notebook Content *) (* Internal cache information *) (*CellTagsOutline CellTagsIndex->{} *) (*CellTagsIndex CellTagsIndex->{} *) (*NotebookFileOutline Notebook[{ Cell[1464, 33, 23804, 478, 873, "Output"], Cell[25271, 513, 385, 8, 73, "Text"], Cell[25659, 523, 1757, 26, 171, "Text"] } ] *) (* End of internal cache information *) (* NotebookSignature AxDg0bPlW2#6LA1vnBWtJKeC *)